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Currencies surrounded by lower interest rates are more likely to weaken over the longer term. Markets are ever-changing with the anticipation of different events and situations. A shift in expectations is a signal that a shift in speculation will start, gaining more momentum as the interest rate change nears. While interest rates change with the gradual shift of monetary policy, market sentiment can also change rather suddenly from just a single report.
This causes interest rates to change in a more drastic fashion or even in the opposite direction as originally anticipated. So you better watch out! Below is an example of one of many ways to monitor interest rate expectations and is one of the most-watched news releases. The Fed Dot Plot , which is published after each Fed meeting, shows the projections of the 16 members of the Federal Open Market Committee the bigwigs in the Fed who are actually are in charge of setting interest rates.
Assume that the interest rate for borrowing funds for a one-year period in Country A is 3% per annum, and that the one-year deposit rate in Country B is 5%. Interest rates are crucial to day traders due to the higher the rate of return. More interest accrues on currency invested and profits are higher. Forex rates are always on the move. One thing that is always a constant underlying factor is the interest rate on a currency.